Well, that business is crumbling from the inside out and not even Larry Ellison’s billions can win the America’s Cup, although wind conditions delayed the inevitable this morning. With the data out last night the US$ bounced and we saw some inevitable retracements in the currencies. So, let’s have a look at them.
DATA HIGHLIGHTS TODAY – BOJ Kuroda speaks again. CAD CPI.
AUDUSD – Yes, a bearish inside bar as it comes back to test 94cents. No RSI divergence but there is in Stochastic, so if you prefer that momentum indicator then there is your signal that the sell-off is coming. Resistance: 9527/9576/9615 Support: 9390/9300/9215
EURUSD – With strong data coming from Germany, and their elections this weekend, along with the cable stumbling on retail sales last night, the Euro attracted buyers. The sellers did dominate at the end but still, it is a HH/HL and no sign of slow down in momentum. Resistance: 13545/13644/13700 Support: 13400/13236/13100
GBPUSD – Like the Aussie an inside bearish bar and no RSI divergence, but stochastic divergence. As mentioned, with retail sales stumbling a bit and the US$ on bid the cable retraced some of its strong trend. Resistance: 16180/16300/16390 Support: 15890/15755/15610/15420
NZDUSD – An awesome run, like their big cat in San Fran. Ran up to tag the 1.618 extension level of 8433 and is now only a few hundred pips from all time highs. Incredible stuff. There is some divergence as it peaks up here and it cannot remain vertical for too long so expect some retracement today or Monday, once they have the cup in hand. Resistance: 8392/8432/8480 Support: 8280/8160/8050
USDCAD – Tested round number of 1.02 before turning bullish and I am looking at taking the trade even though I have 2 CAD trades already. Well, I am effectively square CAD in my trades so that is ok. Resistance: 10300/10420/10555 Support: 10195/10100/10000
USDJPY – A good strong buyer bar and I wish it would break the range. I am tempted to trade this but would prefer to see a complete cycle above 100 rather than risk it. Resistance: 100.00/100.70/101.20/102.56 Support: 9690/9580/9497
GOLD – A HH/HL as the bugs took a breather. With the Fed keeping the taps open for no discernible reason to me other than to keep the fat greedy ones rolling in it I am getting bullish gold again. This mad play by Bernanke will haunt them in years to come, and Yellen is no better in fact she is worse as she is on record wanting negative interest rates! Complete insanity. Bite the bullet you muppets and be done with it for a few tough years but come back stronger. This asset bubbling with your “free” money is creating a world of pain that will come in spades. Resistance: 1350/1,425/1,489/1525 Support: 1307/1,266/1225
David Long/ Proprietary Trading Manager