Monthly Currency Trading News


May Market Overview

:  May started with disappointing ISM Manufacturing and increased Unemployment Claims while Non-Manufacturing PMI improved. This followed with disappointing ADP Non-Farm and Non-Farm Employment Change. Unemployment Rate remained at 5% and Average Hourly Earnings m/m came unchanged. Crude oil Inventories came above expectations first week and well below the second week. Core Retail Sales m/m, Retail Sales m/m and Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment improved while PPI m/m improved. Second half of the month brought disappointing Building Permits, improved CPI m/m and unchanged Core CPI m/m.  Filly Fed Manufacturing Index disappointed and Unemployment Claims increased. FOMC minutes indicated a possibility of June Rate hike. The month ended with improved Core Durable Goods Orders m/m and Unemployment Claims while Preliminary GDP q/q came as expected. Ms Yelen ended the month with the statement that’ it is probably appropriate to increase the interest rate in the coming months if economic data improve’.

: The month started with reduced Manufacturing PMI and Caixin Manufacturing PMI.  Trade Balance came well above expectations. Industrial Production y/y came disappointing while CPI y/y remained unchanged.

 EU spring economic forecast: ‘Staying the course amid high risk’. Greece returned to centre stage on 9 May with the continuing debt crisis and deliberations of further bailout. German Factory Orders m/m and preliminary GDP q/q came above expectations while Flush GDP q/q came below. Final CPI y/y came unchanged at -0.2. German Zew Economic Sentiment was very disappointing but Ifo Business Climate improved.

 

The month started with Manufacturing, Construction, Services PMI and Manufacturing Production m/m below expectations. BOE kept interest rates on hold. CPI y/y reduced to 0.3 while Average Earnings Index 3m/y Claimant Count Change and Retail Sales improved.  Estimated GDP q/q came as expected.

 

The month started with Cash Rate reduction to 1.75%. Building Approvals, Retail Sales and Trade Balance all came above expectations. Employment Change and Unemployment Rate came above while Private Capital Expenditure q/q came well below expectations.

 

Week ahead in the News

: CB Consumer Confidence, Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI, Unemployment Claims and Unemployment Rate.

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